Thursday, February 10, 2011

Mubarak and Regime Survival in Egypt

After much speculation, we find that Mubarak is not resigning. All he does is transfer some powers to his newly appointed VP, Omar Suleiman, appoint a a special committee to oversee constitutional reform, and step down in September after overseeing an orderly transition of power. This means that the regime is not relenting, and not planning to go anywhere.

If the entire episode has left you confused, perhaps you should stop listening to what Al Jazeera tries to promote, but rather read experts such as Guy Bechor and Barry Rubin. Perhaps checking back at my earlier post on Bechor's 10 rules for regime survival in Egypt and you will readily see that the struggle for power in Egypt still plays out according to those 10 rules. 

You would also be better served if you read Barry Rubin latest piece, as well as an earlier one. While so far Rubin has mostly played the role of pessimist, raising the alarm bells of the possible outcomes of an Egyptian revolution, he is an excellent analyst of what's going on over there.


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