An Old Kind of Change

With the ongoing wave of transformative change sweeping across the Middle East, we hear the voices of the usual suspects calling for Israel to join the wave and sign away a major chunk of its territory, before it's too late.

Yes, you heard that right! While millions of Arabs are rising to kick out the same kind of autocrats who western liberals have been siding with over any issue rather than with Israel, the same western lierals are calling upon Israel to create the same kind of archaic, cleptocracy that Arabs are finally trying to rid themselves off. 

Why should Israel do it? So when the citizens of 'independent Palestine' do away with Abbas, they will nullify any written agreement because 'Israel should have made peace with the Arab people, not with their dictators'. The same line of argument goes for Syria. Assad's Alawite autocracy will fall from grace this generation, so why should Israel simply shit away it's most important strategical asset?

Truth be told, the land for peace paradigm is dead. The Palestinians are looking at a dimilitarized autonomy for many years, not a state. 

-QP

A Petition to the German Government

This open letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Guido Westerwelle has come to my attention. It expresses dismay at Germany's recent UN vote against Israel. The petition has so far garnered 3,500 signatures and they are targeting 10,000. While many of the signatories are just concerned German citizens, it includes some respectable journalists and intellectuals.

If you know any German citizens that wish to maintain their country's modern role as a friend of the Jewish people and the state of Israel, please bring this petition to their attention.

It was translated by a native German speaker and further edited by me:

To: Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle

The Arab world is burning. But the UNSC has nothing better to do than to debate for three hours Israel's settlement policy with the goal of label them as illegal.

You, honorable Ms. Merkel, and you honorable Mr. Westerwelle have promised the world that Germany will not disappoint when it occupies a seat in the UNSC.  But now, you support a resolution that is part of the propaganda war of the Palestinians, instead of prompting the Palestinians to negotiate with their peace partner Israel a mutual agreement in regards to the future borders of the Palestinian state.

This makes it clear that Germany does not measure up to its own expectations with respect to its position as 'Friend of Israel' exactly when it is called upon to back years of lip service with concrete actions. Here, one would expect Germany's equivocal 'No!'.

However, by consenting to the UNSC resolution you support the one sided conviction of the only democracy in the Middle East based on the falsification of history.

Israeli Arab Sheikh Threatens an Uprising

Israeli Arab Sheikh Abbas Zakhour, who until recently occupied a seat in the Knesset, Israel's national parliament is warning that unless discrimination against Israel's Arab minority stops, a similar type of popular uprising as seen in the Middle East recently is imminent.

This is coming from a person who merely last year traveled to Libya to kiss Gaddafi's ass to the dismay of many Israelis. While some of the Israeli Arab leaders who traveled to Libya last year expressed reservations regarding the visit (at least retroactively), to my Knowledge the Sheikh hasn't. 

It's important to note that individual members of Israel's Arab minority have access to far more political and economical rights than any other Arab individuals in the Middle East. That's without mentioning the large number of affirmative action programs that was legislated by the state in recent years.

Are things perfect? No... but it's mostly because of douches like the Sheikh who wants to push his constituents towards petty ethnic warfare rather than represent their many (legitimate) aspirations in the Knesset, which is what he was elected by them to do.

If anything, I think Israeli Arabs should enact a similar day of range against their own community leaders, who would rule just as a typical Middle Eastern autocrat were they given the chance.

-QP 

First Taste of Middle East Instability Reaches Israel

In the last few hours several 'Grad' rockets have hit several towns in the northern Negev. Most notably, Be'er Sheva has been hit for the first time since operation 'Cast Lead' just over two years a go.

I bet western liberals feel very proud of their unconditional support to the 'democratic' revolution taking place in the Middle East. Well, what we will actually be seeing very soon is much more instability, more conflicts. The only thing we will probably not see much off is real democracy in the western sense. That is, a democracy that runs on the principles of individual rights, freedom of expression and mutual coexistence of citizens with varying, often contradictory desires.

Sorry, the 'people's desire to wage holy war on the infidels' does not cut it as a democratic aspiration.

Insane Tweets from Libya

I was always weary of what's found on Twitter regarding any event in the world, let alone what's happening in the Middle East right now.
This tweet has to take the cake:

 Confirmed caller from Tripoli: African mercenaries are African jews trained in
Israel #Libya #Egypt #Tunisia #Algeria #feb17

Yep. This is the kind of quality news streaming out Libya via the celebrated social networks. If you didn't chuckle when reading this tweet then it's pretty much imperative that your brain leaked out of your rears, some time a go.

Sadly enough, this is not comedy, but it's really what's going on in the minds of the alternative, democratic leadership of the Arab world.

Israeli President Shimon Peres to Visit Morocco

I have heard an unconfirmed report that Shimon Peres will visit Morocco by way of Spain. The unconfirmed report is in Hebrew. It's provided by a source with a pretty good track record, so I will consider it as 'highly probably' to be true.

If this report is correct, I find the timing somewhat interesting as major demonstrations are planned for the 20th of February.

-QP

Sarkozy Advisor Accuses Karsenty as being a Mossad Spy

France 2, has unfortunately played a role in one of the biggest blood libels of the second Intifada. As a 15 year old Zionist, I found it difficult to swallow the footage when the report came out. It was used extensively to label Israel as a 'child killer'.

Turns out that it was a carefully perpetrated piece of Pallywood (Palestinian's crafty use of media in order to construct a false narrative in world opinion). Phillipe Kasenty is a French media analyst that revealed the truth regarding the France 2 footage. The network successfully sued him for libel, a decision that was overturned in Karsenty's favour. To date, France 2 has continuously refused to released their full footage.

Now Karsenty is being accused by Sarkozy's staff as being an Israeli spy (h/t Israel Matzav):

Gaza Citizens Speak at a Conference in Sderot

In Sderot, a conference that deals with the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict and 15 Gaza residence were able to get an visitor permit in order to participate. It's interesting to get a perspective into what they think and Ynet provides it.

While most Palestinians requested to remain anonymous, Mayin Shakafa, a community organizer was outspoken and was undeterred despite of worries for his family's safety.

Understandably so, Shakafa isn't happy about the Strip's isolation:

He also provided the crowd with his viewpoint of life in the Strip. "We are still holed up in Gaza and bringing everything through tunnels. Why must it be this way?" he asked.

Shakafa, however, does not hold Israel responsible for all his maladies:

Has Mubarak Finally Payed a Visit to Israel?

Many Israeli prime ministers flocked down to Mubarak's seat of power in Sharm Al Sheikh in what was presented by Israelis as a sign of improved relations, and by the Egyptians as an Israeli recognition of who's in charge.

Unlike his predecessor Sadat, who made quite an overture and appealed for regional, lastable peace from the podium of the Israeli Knesset, Mubarak never ventured to the Holly Land with the exception of Rabin's funeral.

Some interesting rumours are running wild at the moment. A recent one puts Mubarak in Eilat, Israel.

Of course those rumours are just as reliable as the ones that placed the former Egyptian president (HeeHee!) in Dubai, Baden-Baden and Saudi Arabia.

-QP

The People of Iran are Getting Ready to Reclaim the Revolution

Tomorrow morning Iran's 'Green Movement', the pro-democracy protest movement, is planning a day of action. Perhaps emboldened by the outcomes of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Iran's vast educated middle class is fed up with the dictatorship of Khaminai, Ahmadinijad and their Seppah gangs.

Unlike my worries about an Egyptian revolution, I am fully convinced that Iran is ready to establish a consensual democracy. Despite of years of mismanagement, sanctions and oppression, Iran has a relatively good economy and a strong, affluent and educated middle class. While, I do not expect Iran to immediately become close friends of Israel, simply cutting the genocidal rhetoric and letting Iranian athletes compete against their Israeli counterparts will be a good starting point.

I believe that Iranians and Israelis actually have much more in common than they expect.

New Zionist Conspiracy: Iran Accuses Mossad of Artificially Deflating Drug Prices

Asside from controlling world media, financial markets, the American congress, the president and a wide range of wild animals, apparently the Mossad is also working quite hard to ensure that Iranian drug addicts get their fix really really cheap.

Once again, I find myself extremely powerful of the Mossad! An organization that is estimated to have about 2,000 employees is able to control all the flow of contraband across the porous Iran-Afghanistan border. They are also able to keep every heroin pusher in the country on a short leash and bitchslap him if he may dare to sell at the reasonable, market price. If that's not an excellent use of the 'secret discretionary' budget of the Prime Minister's Office, I don't know what is.

Reactions from Israel to Mubarak Departure

I have previously maintained that support for the Mubarak regime is not deeply ingrained in Israeli society and is mostly limited to close cordial relationship of a small layer of politicians and to the fact that Mubarak's rule has been stable and found shared interests with Israel.

As for the people, they usually see Mubarak as a laughable autocrat. While 'official Israel' pretended that Mubarak's regime is a democratic republic for posterity, everyone knew the truth. Israelis tend to have disdain for central authority and far reaching regulations, they have no sympathy for a brutal dictator, be him a complacent one.

Israel always pointed out that the Middle East is a tough neighbourhood, and having Switzerland, Belgium or Canada as neighbours is preferable to having Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Deep inside, most Israelis would love to see Egypt (as well as all of Israel's neighbours) transformed to western style liberal democracies. This can be reflected by reactions of the Israeli public to recent events in Egypt. 

Syria and Qatar Tried to Sabotage a Shalit Deal

According to WikiLeaks (via Ynetnews), Qatar and Syria tried to derail the Egypt mediated negotiations that would have resulted in the captive Israeli soldier released, and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners let go from Israeli prison. This comes from a discussion between Mubarak and a US general, which was cabled back to Washington:

According to the report, which is based on a WikiLeaks document, Mubarak claimed that Syria and Qatar offered Hamas$50 million to keep soldier Gilad Shalit in captivity in order to impede a prisoner swap deal with Israel brokered by Egypt.

The US general quoted Mubarak in a cable sent to Washington. The document does not specify whether Hamas accepted the offer and does not contain details regarding the proposed payment method.

Mubarak apparently made the comments three months before Israel received a video tape showing Gilad Shalit in what then appeared as a breakthrough in efforts to release him.

According to the Norwegian report, which was quoted in Al Jazeera and Palestinian media, WikiLeaks papers provide additional details regarding Egypt's involvement in the deal. Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman, the former intelligence minister, had a major role in efforts to free the kidnapped soldier

MJ Rosenberg Proves Himself Right (by ignoring history)

Sometimes you see an opinion that is so correct, so convincing and so well written. That's of course if you don't know history or willfully ignore it! MJ Rosenberg set out to prove that in any historical debate the Israeli 'Peace Camp' had it right. In order to so, he molests  over 40 years of history.

Let's examine some of his claims. Of course it was the Israeli Peace Camp that could have saved Israel from the dreaded Yom Kippur War. It would have been averted if Israel merely trusted Sadat blindfoldedly. He writes:

The most egregious example of this phenomenon comes from Egypt, where in 1971 President Anwar Sadat offered to begin negotiations toward peace in exchange for a two-mile wide Israeli withdrawal from the east bank of the Suez Canal, which Israel had captured along with the rest of the Sinai Peninsula in the 1967 war.

...

The Nixon administration told the Israeli government to explore the idea because Sadat was intent on going to war if he did not get his territory back.

The peace camp in Israel and its allies here urged Israel to follow Nixon's advice and hear Sadat out. The lobby, of course, told Nixon to mind his own business.

As for the Israeli cabinet, it told Nixon's emissary, Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Sisco, that it had no interest in discussing Egypt's offer. It voted for keeping all of the Sinai Peninsula and sending Egypt a simple message: no. After all, the Egyptians had shown just four years earlier that they were no match for the IDF.

Two years later, the Egyptians attacked, and within hours all of Israel's positions along the canal were overrun and its soldiers killed. By the time the war ended, Israel had lost 3,000 soldiers and almost the state itself. And then, a few years later, it gave up the entire Sinai anyway - not just the two-mile strip Egypt had demanded in 1971. 

Dr. Guy Bechor and his 10 Rules for Egypt's Regime Survival

If you have been following the events unfold in Egypt via Al Jazeera, Twitter or any western source (that got most of its sources through the former), the lack of regime change in Egypt this far into the revolt must seem strange. That's because our understanding of Egypt has been clouded by democratic optimism on one side, and Qatar's agenda on the other. With lack of thorough understanding of the history and the culture of Egypt, it's almost impossible to make a clear headed judgment.

There is however, one analyst, that knows Egypt very well. Unlike some analysts who predicted the fall of the Mubarak regime and its replacement with the Muslim Brotherhood, or others who optimistically foreshadowed the dawn of 'true democracy', Bechor maintained that the regime will probably survive this round.

To let his readers better grasp his understanding of the situation, Dr. Bechor came up with 10 guiding rules to why the regime has thus far survived, and will probably continue doing so. To those of you who can read Hebrew, you may follow the link. To those who don't, here is my summary of them:

In Search of Apocalypse: a Story of Liberal Hypocrisy and Western Naivete

In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, many on the left were criticizing Bush and warning others, about the former president's strange religious views and how they affect his policy decisions. It was said that Bush and his 'neocon' friends have a millenarian bend and that they are looking to live out some apocalyptic biblical prophecy. Most notable is president Chirac's claim that Bush said 'Gog Magog is at hand' when the latter tried to convince the former to join his coalition for the war in Iraq (which is coincidentally the location of biblical Babylon, not to mention lots and lots and lots of Oil).

The debate went back and forth. Some claimed that the occasional Bush religious statement was merely a move for his substantial Evangelical support base. The left often tried to dig very hard to find such statements in order to try and label Bush as some sort of a religious whacko. 

Bush's critics wanted to warn us of the possibility of Bush being a religious fanatic, and rightfully so. While I believe that calling Bush a religious fanatic is much of a stretch, in the west, we have come to view religion as a private aspect of life that should not be used for public policy. This is a problem that every country with a substantial conservative religious minority has to grapple with.

Interestingly enough though, the same group of Liberals, who are taking a 'principled' stand on a western politician's religious fanaticism, are proven to be full of hot air. Because when the same conservative elements which the liberals accuse of being overly religious, point to the fact that we should be careful from Islamist movements because they are most certainly religious whackos bent on holy war and the end of days, the 'principled' liberals instinctively go on the defensive to protect the Islamists.

Attack on Egypt - Israel Gas Line

Earlier this morning, the main pipeline transporting natural gas from Egypt to Israel was blown up. The attack took place in the vicinity of El Arish, the largest city in the northern part of the Sinai peninsula. As a result, the flow of Egyptian natural gas, which accounts for 25-40% of Israel's supplies, has ceased indefinitely. With the current instability and uncertainty in Egypt, it's hard to believe this pipeline is going to be fixed any time soon.

While some in Egypt try to calm the situation down and claim that the explosion was caused by a leak, I don't really by it. The northern Sinai is a bit like the wild west, especially now. Gangs of Bedouins rule the roads and a few days a go Egypt's border control with the Gaza strip collapsed, enabling an almost unrestricted flow of people in and out of the strip.

The Egyptians also claim that there was no real damage to the pipe and flow was suspended just as a precautionary measure.

Debka claim that this was a well planned military attack on the line, carried out by special units of the Hamas. While Debka is not the most trustworthy source, they have been fairly reliable on the Egyptian front, reporting that Obama is pressuring Mubarak to depart immediately, 3-4 days before the mainstream media collapsed.

While it is still difficult to make something out of the situation, it is a good indicator of things to come. The Egyptian revolution is just a week old and Israel is already facing the prospects of losing about a third of its natural gas supplies.  If things progress the 'wrong' way in Egypt, the effects could be much harsher, impacting the rest of the world significantly.

-QP

Barry Rubin: Scoop: Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Explains How It Will Get Rid of Peace Treaty with Israel

By Barry Rubin

We have been repeatedly assured in the media--on the basis of no evidence--that if the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in a coalition or even directly that the radical Islamist group would keep the peace treaty with Israel.

Now a leading Brotherhood figure, former spokesman Doctor Kamel Helbaoui, explains how they will get out of it. It is also a good example of how they avoid embarassing questions, and usually get away with it. Clearly, Brotherhood leaders have been warned to avoid extremist statements as it tries to sell itself to the Western audience and (insert adjective) media as moderate and cuddly.

In an interview on French television, he says (1:40-2:12 on the show):

Interviewer: "And would you revoke the peace treaty with Israel?"
Answer: "We respect all protocols and the treaties built on justice. 
Interviewer: "Sorry, I didn't understand your response."
Answer: "We respect every treaty and every protocol for peace, but it should be built on justice. 
Interviewer: "Does that mean you would keep the peace treaty with Israel? 
Answer: "You keep it, but you have to review it in [unclear] of the atrocities from either side."
Interviewer: "What do you mean by that?"
Answer: "I mean that we don't need injustice to reach the people. If the peace treaty does not give the people their rights, it is not a good treaty, is not a good peace accord."
Interviewer: "So are you saying that the current peace treaty is not good enough?"
Answer: "No, it is not good enough. I must say that."
Interviewer: "So you would revoke that peace treaty. 
Answer: "No, I didn't say that. You would change it. It could be reviewed, it could be reviewed in view of respect of human rights. And through the United Nations, through freedom given to the people, respect of every one. Not occupation and the military atrocities against civilians." 

So while trying to avoid admitting it, he explains that Egypt would demand changes and not accept the existing treaty. But what you also have to know--and most journalists would miss--is that the Muslim Brotherhood regards Israel's existence as "occupation" and the denial of Muslim rights. 

Paradoxically, then, the only way Israel could have a peace treaty with Egypt is not to exist at all.

Other Brotherhood spokesmen have said that if the group comes to power there will be a referendum on the treaty, and of course it will be rejected. In other words, the Brotherhood will end the peace with Israel and return to a state of war. 

This would not necessarily mean going to war but turning Egypt into a safe haven from which terrorists could attack across the border and any weapons Hamas wanted would come from Egyptian arsenals (or if the army blocked that, just be freely imported into the Gaza Strip. Eventually, this would lead to renewed war between Israel and Hamas, or even Israel and Egypt, in which thousands of people would die.

Grim Account of Cairo

A Jerusalem Post journalist has decided to come to Cairo by way of Amman yesterday. His report addresses only the 'human' aspect of the current situation, leaving the analysis for elsewhere.

The account is quite amazing:

It’s hard not to believe that for many of the younger vigilantes, especially the teenage boys, the experience is great fun, the best show in town.

The power trip is palpable, and staying out all night next to a bonfire, loitering with a weapon with impunity is a joy any teenage boy should be able to understand.

Nonetheless, beyond the apparent diversionary and self-protection aspect of the whole production, it seems the checkpoints are a crude show of force. In a country where only weeks earlier people shuddered at the thought of criticizing the regime out loud for fear of violence or detention, the checkpoints and the improvised arsenals seem to send a message that these people weren’t to be trifled with. That if the moment comes when the regime puts this down by force, the work won’t be easy, that even with US-armed special police units at their disposal, the regime will have to get their hands very dirty, and battle it out block by block.

Either that, or that after 30 years of biting your tongue, it’s easier to speak loud when you carry a big stick.

... 

After negotiating an exorbitant fee from a taxi driver breaking the curfew outside the airport, we set out on what turned out to be a nearly two-hour trip into town. The lawless “Mad Max” cityscape was so deserted that it reminded me of Israel on Yom Kippur, with the Israeli kids on bikes replaced by bonfires, vigilante checkpoints, and the occasional army tank blocking the road.

And, like on Yom Kippur, I began to consider begging for forgiveness for my sins – if anything, just so I could make it to the hotel  in one piece. 

Read it all 

Netanyahu Showing (very) Cautious Optimism on Egypt

I have always maintained that Israel would love to collaborate with democracies in the Middle East. Unfortunately, true liberal democracies in the region do not exist beyond the borders of Israel. So Israel resorts to collaborating with moderate authoritarian regimes such as Mubarak's Egypt. This does not stem from any desire to keep the Egyptian people repressed, but rather out of fear that the alternative is far too bad. 'He is a bastard, but he is our bastard'.

For western viewers, the debate may be about abstract ideas about liberty and democracy. For Israelis, the debate is about life and death, because if Egypt becomes another Iran, well you can figure that one out. Remember: democracy does not equate to rule at the whims of the masses. Democracy should encode a deeper principle of an individual relationship with the state and the state's relationship with its neighbors.

Netanyahu, in what appears to be the first official government statement on the issue, is showing cautious optimism:

"It is inevitable that an Egypt which adopts the 21st century, which adopts such reforms, is a source of great hope for the world, the region, and us."

Netanyahu, who has previously voiced concern that the uprising would take on the characteristics of the Islamic revolution in Iran, spoke in a more positive tone on Wednesday.

"Democracy is dear to us, it is real, and it is obvious that a democratic Egypt will not endanger peace, just the opposite. If modern history teaches us anything it is that the stronger the democratic foundations, the stronger the foundations for peace," he said.

However, the prime minister reminded listeners that less optimistic scenarios could also transpire. "Tehran is waiting for the day in which darkness descends. They are not interested in the Egyptian citizens' aspirations for freedom, just as they were uninterested in such cries from the Iranian people," he warned.

Netanyahu also addressed concerns that the uprising would lead to the empowerment of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's main opposition group, which may object to the 1979 peace agreement with Israel.

"A peace agreement does not guarantee the existence of peace, so in order to protect it and ourselves, in cases in which the agreement disappears or is violated due to a regime change on the other side, we protect it with security arrangements on the ground," he said. 

Israel embraces all steps towards a true, modern and democratic Middle East. It is good to have a small flavour of optimism. It is more important however, to have a much larger dose of cautious realism.

-QP