The wave of popular protests intensified in Egypt today (CNN):
By early Tuesday morning, more than 90,000 people throughout the country had pledged to participate in the event in a Facebook group called "We Are All Khaled Said," named after an Alexandria activist who was allegedly beaten to death by police.
The Facebook group demands raising the minimum wage, sacking the interior minister, creating two-term presidential term limits and scrapping existing emergency laws that the group says "resulted in police control" over the people and the nation.
To highlight the role of police corruption, organizers tapped January 25 -- Police Day and a national holiday -- to hold protests.
Amnesty International released a statement Monday "urging the Egyptian authorities not to crack down" on the planned nationwide demonstration.
The banned Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest organized opposition to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime, had stated it would not have an official presence at Tuesday's protests, but some of its members "have reportedly been summoned and threatened with arrest and detention" if they attend and protest, Amnesty International said.
It was not clear whether opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei would attend the planned demonstrations. However, he posted statements supporting the effort on his Twitter account.
He also issued a video statement released Monday on YouTube addressing policemen.
"I sympathize with you because sometimes you are asked to do things that you do not want to do," ElBaradei said.
"One day, I hope that you will regain your role as the protectors of the people; rather than protectors of ... fraud elections. I am sure that every one of you deep inside is looking forward to the day that his role will again be with the people and a part of them, rather than against them." he added.
Public sentiment against state security forces has grown recently with alleged videos of police brutality shown on the Internet. A recent report from Human Rights Watch said the problem is "epidemic" and "in most cases, officials torture detainees to obtain information and coerce confessions, occasionally leading to death in custody."
Some other human rights groups, such as the Arabic Network for Human Rights, have drawn a comparison between Egypt and Tunisia under Ben Ali, in terms of the level of government corruption and police brutality.
Adly, the Egyptian interior minister, dismissed any such comparisons, calling it "propaganda" that had been dismissed by politicians as "intellectual immaturity."
But one woman, identified only as Nahla, who plans to attend the Tuesday protests, disagrees. She wrote in an online post, "I hope the [Tunisia-style] revolution will be taught in history. And that Egyptians will learn in school later about the January 25th revolution."
Of course mass protests over living conditions, food prices, wages and corruption were not uncommon during the economic crisis of '08. This time however, the people are using the recent events in Tunisia as a strong back wind. If the Egyptian regime can maintain its composure and use a heavy hand, it will survive. If it caves, it will probably falter.
That is not to say of course, that I am in favour of increased brutality to secure regime survival.
-QP
(h/t War News Updates)
For better or for worse, it looks as though the events that transpired in the last couple of weeks are having quite an impact on the rest of the Arab world. Of course the outcome from country to country will be quite different. Tunisia, despite of its autocratic regime, is quite moderate. Its aversion from radical Islam reflects a much more pragmatic nature towards the dominant religion people of the Maghrab region have.
Of course, the perception that the people can come out to the street and scare the regime into submission is being noticed. As I stated in a previous post, all sorts of radicals, revolutionaries or just plane folks who want more, are going to come crawling out of their holes and make a stand.
Jordanians are staging 'bread' protests. This does not seem to reflect any major aversion of the people with their royals, but rather an attempt to gain some minor victories with it, such as reduced food prices or increased subsidies. The fact that the protesters are carrying loaves of bread as props seems a little cynical to me.
Meanwhile, the world's favourite 'victims' are attempting to stage solidarity protests. Of course the Palestinian Authority has blocked such attempts. The PA is routinely ranked as one of the most corrupt administrative bodies in the world. If a Palestinian state were to be declared tomorrow, it will surely be one of the most corrupt in the world. That's why, I see no intention on the side of the PA to declare independence and demand the IDF removed from the West Bank. If that were to happen, the events of Tunis will look like kids' show in comparison.
The most recent country to experience public displays of discontent is Yemen. It seems as though all Arab regimes are on the defensive, playing nice and trying to bribe their population with a bit of cash. My impression is that in the Middle East, those temporary minor victories will trigger more pressure from the population.
This however, does not at all mean that the Arab world is facing a wave of democratic revolutions. I believe the true long term implication of these events will only be well understood within decade. Just as the outcome of the popular revolutions of 1848 in Europe started becoming apparent after the first world war, I think the true outcome of the current wave of demonstrations will be felt only in the next generation.
-QP
Major change can come from the places you least expect. Tunisia is one of the wealthier (non-oil producing) Arab countries, relatively liberal/secular constitution and no recent history of major conflict/civil strife. It is also one of few Arab countries where Israelis could travel to as tourists, despite of lack of formal relations between the countries.
The context of the recent events is as follows: Tunisia has been ruled by strongman president Zine el Abidine bin Ali for the past 23 years. Prior to his ascent to power he was a protege of sorts to former president Habib Bourguiba, the former stepping into the latter's shoes. Between the two, Tunisia has been ruled by the same autocratic regime for some 54 years.
Like in many autocratic regimes, an unwritten agreement between the people and the government has existed. The government was required to sustain a relatively happy and prosperous middle class. In exchange for stability and growth, the middle class agreed to give up on certain freedoms and liberties and turn a blind eye to the ruling elite's vast nepotism and corruption.
Recently, like much of the world, Tunisia has been facing an economic crisis. Economic slowdown, rising food prices and decline in European tourism has shattered the old unwritten clause. Meanwhile, bin Ali has been reelected to a 5th term in office with a whopping 89% of the vote in 'Free and Democratic Elections' (long after his self imposed 3 term limit has surpassed ).
The country's youth, who are facing high unemployment and are unhappy about their future prospects, decided that all bets are off and decided to take to the streets. After about two weeks of turmoil, president bin Ali has declared that an emergency election will take place within 6 months. The protesters, who have become disillusioned with the country's sham democracy were emboldened to press on the advantage. After his attempted compromise fell threw, bin Ali fled to Saudi Arabia by way of Malta, after France has refused to grant him asylum.
Meanwhile, the speaker of the parliament has been sworn in as interim president and the military is in control of the situation.
Much speculation is filling the web on whether real change has come to Tunisia and how this event will impact the rest of the Arab world. Abu Toameh reports that revolutionaries longing for regime change are salivating all over this. In the west it has been already dubbed as the 'Jasmine Revolution' or the first 'WikiLeaks Revolution'. Of course we all remember how all the 'Colour Revolutions' panned out, don't we?
Barry Rubin predicts that Tunisia is heading towards restoring the old balance between the ruling elite and the middle class rather than real democratic reform as the bin Ali's regime has been pretty succesful at keeping the media and organized opposition under his thumb, there is no real alternative.
Regardless of whether these events can 'spread' to other countries, I am sure many Arab rules took notice. A long time autocratic ruler had to flee the country over what has allegedly started due to the suicide of the owner of an unlicensed vegetable stand after his scuffle with the authorities.
Can real, democratic change come from the Arab street? I haven't seen a precedent that suggests so. Somehow, I don't think that this is it.
