Deposing the General

While the world kept its eyes fixated on the deposition of General Mubarak in a very elaborate coup d'etat, next door, the designated replacement for Israel's Chief of Staff (CoS) has been 'deposed' in what I can only describe as a very elaborate Putsch.

The nomination process of a new Chief of Staff is a difficult process. According to Israeli law, the CoS is appointed by the cabinet on the advice of the defense minister. The first issue is that quite often the prime minister and the defense minister both have very different political considerations, as well as very different relationships with the suitable candidates for the job. Which brings me to the second point. At any given nomination round, there are at least four or five generals who see themselves as suitable. There is the Deputy CoS, the head of MI, the heads of the various regional commands, etc. In addition, often there will be general fulfilling important government roles, such as Chief military advisor to the prime minister, or military attache in Washington that are often decorated generals.

Thus, every nomination round is likely to leave out many highly capable and well respected defense establishment leaders unhappy with you.

The recent round of nomination has been a relatively painful process. Netanyahu, who does not have the background of a high ranking officer, wisely decided to let the defense minister, Ehud Barak go about the nomination process. The conflict was between Barak and Eshkenazi, the incumbent CoS. 

Against Ashkenazi's advice, Barak chose Aluf Yoav Galant, who until recently was the commander of Israel's southern command. Almost immediately a scandal erupted, which was at the time dubbed the `Galant Document` by the media. The essence of it was that Galant has hired a notorious PR firm in order to tarnish his competition and to promote his own nomination. Galant maintained that he had nothing to do with the document, so did the PR firm. 

It was later found that the document was forged by a defense establishment official named Herpaz and re-dubbed the `Herpaz Document`. After that, Galant`s nomination has been fairly smooth, with no significant obstacles from the government.

Except for one little thing: one journalist started delving into a story that claimed that Galant has illegally annexed agricultural land to his own agricultural estate. An official committee headed by a judge cleared his nomination.

Shortly after, the story erupted in full force in the Israeli media. Galant`s private residence was filmed from helicopters at all sorts of angles. In a somewhat ridiculous fashion, the media called it `the Galant Fortress`. Yes, it`s a fairly nice, spacious home. It`s structure seems to sprawl rather than have multiple levels and there is a rather modest inner courtyard. It`s a house not unlike what you will see in any upper middle class neighborhood. With the rather significant exception that this is a small agricultural village in the north.

The appeal to stop his nomination came funnily enough from the Green Movement. Much like the rest of the world, Israel`s green movement is run by a bunch of big money interests who have an army of well meaning drones. In a hasty review by the government`s chief legal advisor (who is also the chief prosecutor), that he will not be able to defend Galant`s nomination in the appeal. Netanyahu and Barak are now left to scramble for a plan B.

I do not know whether the allegations are true and whether the legal advisor`s opinion is well justified. But what is obvious is that someone at high levels refused to accept the nomination of Galant as CoS. The media has played a major role in this elaborate Putsch. 

The government needs to quickly investigate who is behind it and why.

Follow the money!

-QP

Why does the Israeli Left hate Barak?

In 1998, Barak was the left's rising star. Their prime candidate to replace Netanyahu at the premiership and get the "Peace Process" on track. He was a highly decorated soldier, a former Chief of Staff and the darling of the media. So what did he do to become derided by his own party, hated by the media?


Barak made an effort to arrive at a conclusion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by offering Arafat a comprehensive offer that included major chunks of the old city of Jerusalem, and a state on over 95% of the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat's response was a stern rejection and unleashing a wave of terror on the Israeli population. Barak was unable to resolve the situation, the Israeli economy and Sharon was elected. Barak was sent to political 'exile' (during which he made a nice sum in the private sector).


I think that Barak is so badly derided because he managed to expose Arafat's true intentions. They are worried that he will not be willing to make the same risks again. That's why he is hated.


Those who know me, know that I was never a fan of Barak. For him it was never about ideology but all about opportunism. His recent split is understandable simply due to the intense barage he was subjected to by his own party.

Benny Morris: The Fruit of Israel's Labor | The National Interest

Anyone who is following the recent split of Israel's labour party, should read this great historical summary by Benny Morris.

Where I tend to somewhat disagree with Morris' analysis is on the claim that the final blow to Labour came in the form of the Palestinian's pertinant refusal to accept a state:

In the first decade of the third millenium, the Palestinians—Arafat and Abbas (and, needless to say, the fundamentalist anti-Semitic Hamas)—had, again, rejected not so much a set of proposals as an idea, a principle, the two-state solution. They wanted all of Palestine, and not an inch for the Jews.

And it was this rejection that destroyed the Israel Labor Party, which lost, and lost big, in all the general elections that followed Camp David. In 2000, the Israeli electorate grimly came to understand that there was no "peace partner", that the Palestinians would not, would never, sign on to the existence of a Jewish state in any part of Palestine, and that what Labor stood for—a two-state solution—was a sad delusion. So the electors voted for the hard right, the soft right, God's various anti-Zionist and ultra-Zionist parties, even a pensioners' list, Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, anything and anyone but Labor and its conciliatory affiliates. The electorate had moved, perhaps irremediably, to the right.

Now Labor is left with four-five Knesset members (in a 120-seat chamber), no platform, no leader—and no future.

Well, yes... Labour lost its mandate because of what it stood for, twice in Israel's rather short history. But the Palestinians were fairly consistent in their position. It's Labour's inability to read into reality as it is, not as they wish it could be, that turned them into a marginal left-wing party.

I will not be surprised if Labour will merge with the far-left Meretz and together the parties will gain perhaps 7 or 8 seats in the next Knesset.

-QP

Air Freshener Politics

Today, the new ministers from Barak's Independence party were sworn in. The Israeli Knesset has authorized this cabinet reshuffle.

Kadima, the official opposition has refered to Barak's recent move as the 'Stinking Maneuver' (the Hebrew equivalent of a dirty trick). How did they protest it? With ideas? A coherent argument? 

No...!

Equipped with props, members of the opposition sprayed air freshener to protest the move. Perhaps they are forgetting that Kadima was formed as a sort of a dirty trick when Sharon could not convince his own party to adopt a policy that was strictly against its own mandate. One can argue that Barak's move is irresponsible to his own voters. But if so, he will pay for it in the next election!

This does not change the fact that anyone who acts in such a childish manner in his country's national Parliament, where he acts as an elected representative of the people, is making a mockery of the country's laws, its institutions and its people. The left in Israel has lost its mandate and they are currently ideologically bankrupt. Resorting to vigorous hand waving is all they are capable of.

As to Barak's move: The Old Left wing of the Labour party has been threatening to throw him out for quite some time. Barak learned from his own experience where populist social welfare promises and international policy based on appeasement can lead. So what is he accused off? Leaving his party before they get the opportunity to shamelessly throw him out?

What's next? Horns and Buzzers to turn the Knesset into a soccer stadium?
-QP

Lamenting Labour

Today I woke up to hear the news that Israel's defense minister and Labour party chair has resigned his party position and decided to start a new political movement. This probably signals the long anticipated demise of Israel's Labour movement.

Ever since Barak,, the current outgoing leader exposed Arafat's dirty crotch in 2000, which was followed by the very deadly second Intifada, Labour has failed to position itself as a candidate ruling party. So much for the glorious party of Ben Gurion, Golda Meir and Rabin... so much for the party that controlled all branches of the state until 1978.

The amazing thing is that except for a few old socialist farts, nobody is really going to miss it. There are however, people on the left who came to believe that Barak's departure will breath new life into the dying party. Meanwhile, Barak is starting a movement which will be called the Independence Party, pandering for a 'centrist' niche that became vacant after Kadima, under the inept leadership of Tzippi Schpitzer (aka Livni) drifted leftwards.

Based on recent statements, it appears that the move was coordinated with the rest of Israel's ruling triumvirate (Netanyahu and Lieberman) and it seems the three are working towards creating a stable, natural centre right alliance.

I was never a fan of Barak, but I must admit that he is a master of realpolitik. I think his long time involvement with the left was strictly opportunistic. So is this move.


the balance of power look like now?

Labour is left with Braverman, Herzog and Ben Eliezer (and a few others) who are mostly considered as far-left.

Barak brought 4 of his cronies to his new party.

It is rumored that Amir Peretz is about to defect to Kadima. With Dan Halutz's recent enlistment in the party, Kadima is starting to look like a joke.

It is possible that the rather small split will trigger a wave of defections. For example, it is possible that centre and right of centre members of Kadima will join either the Likud or Barak's new party.

What does it mean for the coalition? It will be smaller, but I predict more stable (once the dust settles).

-QP