Barry Rubin: Lebanon Burns, America Snores

By Barry Rubin

While the media is going wild over the ridiculous "Palestine Papers" deception, Hizballah is taking over Lebanon.

Fareed Zakaria, the wildly overrated American pundit, has invented a new term, referring to Hizballah as “a quasi-terrorist group.” What does this mean? It means that Hizballah runs in elections but then if it doesn't get its way it kills people.

At least this is better than the president's advisor on counterterrorism and apparently chief expert on Lebanon who has explained that there is nothing to fear from Hizballah. It can't be terrorist, he explained once, because it has lawyers among its members. 

If we examine the Russian (can't last long), Chinese (“agrarian reformers”), and Iranian (don’t worry, the moderates will soon emerge; Khomeini can’t govern) revolutions we find rationales to explain that soon things will return to normal. There's no problem. But the historic result is decades of horror.

Here's how Martin Gilbert, the British historian, put it:

"At bottom, the old appeasement was a mood of hope, Victorian in its optimism, Burkean in its belief that societies evolved from bad to good and that progress could only be for the better. The new appeasement was a mood of fear, Hobbesian in its insistence upon swallowing the bad in order to preserve some remnant of the good, pessimistic in its belief that Nazism was there to stay and, however horrible it might be, should be accepted as a way of life with which Britain ought to deal."

Yes, "a way of life" that must be accepted. Just another cultural choice involving burqas, stoning, making life impossible for Christians and Jews, terrorism, and massive repression, and endless war, and the indoctrination of children to hate.

On the verge of an international investigation that will show Syria and Hizballah were involved in a dozen bloody terror attacks in Lebanon—and specifically the assassination of former prime minister (and leader of the opposition) Rafik Hariri, Hizballah provoked a government crisis. Then, winning over the Druze leader Walid Junblatt (who sees that Iran-Syria are strong and America-West are weak), it may emerge as the strongest power in a new government. 

"A prime minister chosen by Hezbollah and its allies won enough support on Monday to form Lebanon's government...culminating the generation-long ascent of the Shiite Muslim movement from shadowy militant group to the country's pre-eminent political and military force."

I believe the theme of his article a few days ago was that Hizballah is weak and no threat. This is a very sad day for Lebanon, the Middle East, the hope for peace and freedom, and Western interests.

Of course, Hizballah is not going to convert Lebanon into an Islamist republic. Why start a civil war with the Christians and Sunni Muslims. Just leave them alone in their territorial enclaves. But the Islamists and their partners will control the apparatus of state, foreign policy, and all the key decisions.

How did the leading Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat describe the situation? By saying that Iran will now control Lebanon.

The French government has accepted, even endorsed, this outcome. 

What do you think the rest of the region is going to take away from this? America cannot or will not protect you.Islamism and Iran are the wave of the future. Submit or die. And that's even before Tehran gets nuclear weapons. The way things are going, maybe Iran doesn't even need them. 
And where is the United States? Asleep. Determined to prove that it doesn’t throw its weight around, rationalizing a terrible defeat as insignificant, it hasn't even taken a stance. Now it's too late.

Last year, the United States and Europe accepted the secure establishment of a revolutionary Islamist state that is a client of Iran and Syria on the Mediterranean. This may be the year of seeing a second such state come into existence. Of course, the situation in Lebanon will be far more subtle and nuanced but in strategic terms it amounts to something very similar.

An American government that will put all of its resources into preventing the construction of apartment buildings in east Jerusalem can barely be roused to prevent the construction of an Islamist-dominated state in a country of tremendous strategic significance.

Rubin Reports: April 28, 2009: Here Comes Hillary; There Goes Lebanon."

Rubin Reports: June 4, 2009: "Hizballah Taking Over Lebanon? Don't Worry! Be Happy!"


Rubin Reports: June 15, 2009 "Watch developments in Lebanon carefully as the struggle to form a government is going to be critical. And will the United States and Europe support the March 14 coalition, or rush to "engage" Hizballah, steps which will strengthen the radical Islamist terrorist group, and its Syrian and Iranian sponsors?"

Guess what happened.

Rubin Reports, September 1, 2009: "Lebanon: A Sinking Ship that the Obama Administration has forgotten....Walid Jumblatt, once the lion of the moderate coalition, has now deserted it, thus weakening the anti-Hizballah, anti-Syrian, Lebanese nationalist forces that want to keep Lebanon independent,"

Rubin Reports, July 31, 2010: "Syria Marches Into Lebanon; Saudis Surrender to Inevitable; State Department Proclaims Victory."

And so on. Who possibly could have seen this happening?

editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

European Intelligence Sources: Massive Western Fleet Amassing across from Lebanon

It is claimed that according to 'reliable European intelligence sources situated in Brussles', a large fleet consisting of the navies of two western powers is situating itself in the Mediterranean across from Lebanon. This is all in response to the constitutional crisis the country is currently facing and the declaration of Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze minority, that he will be switching his support from the Pro-western, Hariri led bloc, to the Pro-Syrian/Iranian Hizballah lead bloc, effectively destroying the chance of Hariri maintaining power.

The report stated that the whole democratic and Free World and the majority of the Arab countries are extremely concerned that Tehran's and Damascus's allies could take full control of the Lebanese state and all of its institutions, including both the army and internal security forces. USA, European countries, England, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and many other countries have been conducting around the clock consultations on the highest level to abort this vicious Syrian- Iranian scheme. The Syrian-Iran full control of Lebanon will impose a dire threat to all the Arab countries, Israel, and Europe.

Mr. Gheriafi learned from reliable European Intelligence sources in Brussels that at least two well equipped Western military fleets were urgently ordered to move from the Arabian Gulf to positions close to both Syria and Lebanon in the Mediterranean Sea with strict instructions to fully monitor and watch the unfolding events in Lebanon, especially in case Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, succeeds in taking over the new Lebanese government.

The intelligence sources did not unveil the identity of the Western fleets, but confirmed that they comprise two nuclear aircraft carriers with 210 jet fighter planes on board, and more than 30 ships carrying about 5,800 marines armed with the latest technologies.

The same sources said that the Israeli air and navy forces have been on a high alert status since last Friday after Lebanon's Druze Leader, MP Walid Jumblat, decided to join Hezbollah and Syria with his parliamentary block, giving them the upper hand and a parliamentary majority that enables them to form a new pro-Syrian and -Iranian government, killing all chances for caretaker PM Saad Hariri to return as a PM.

A new Hezbollah-controlled government will cut all Lebanon’s legal and financial relations with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and force the country to fully join the Axis of Evil terrorist front comprised of Syria, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. The STL is expected to indict members from Hezbollah, Iran and Syria for the assassination of late Lebanese PM Raffic Hariri and dozens of high ranking Lebanese politicians, clergy, journalists and intellectuals.

Meanwhile, Israel's PM Netanyahu, his deputy and other high ranking officials expressed their very serious concerns in regard to the looming possibility that Lebanon will have a pro-Syrian and -Iranian government fully controlled by the terrorist Hezbollah and its allies.

The USA administration and both Houses are looking seriously into the dreadful hazards that could affect both the peace process and stability in the Middle East, in case Hezbollah succeeds in forming and fully controlling Lebanon's new government. The Obama administration will most probably halt all kinds of aid to Lebanon and even impose harsh sanctions. 

The situation is extremely tense in Lebanon. A small misstep could result in a regional conflict.

-QP

(h/t kr8) 

Barry Rubin: Who Killed Lebanon's Rafik Harari? Say It Nicely or the Terrorists Will Get Angry!

By Barry Rubin

We are awaiting the publication of the international tribunal report on who killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri  We all know the Syrian government did it but recently there seems to have been more and more evidence that Hizballah was involved as well.

The problem is that if the tribunal says that and not everyone in Lebanon--including Harari's son, Said--says that they are deeply offended, Hizballah is totally innocent and wouldn't hurt a fly (unless it was a Zionist imperialist fly) there's going to be big trouble. Already, Hizballah has brought down the Lebanese government and staged a show of force in Beirut to make that point clear.

This is the latest example of the "do what I want or we will kill you" syndrome which has been so successful around the world. As in: Publish those cartoons and we'll kill you; translate Salman Rushdie's book and we'll kill you; cross the street in Israel and we'll kill you; be a Christian and we'll kill you; and the latest, show this film on Iran's nuclear program and we'll kill you.

Ibrahim Kalin, chief adviser to the Islamist Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan--who is an ally of Iran, Syria, Hizballah, and Hamas--claims that his government has been urging everyone in Lebanon to get along with each other. Perhaps, he suggests, the tribunal report should be delayed, since if--my words here--everyone pretends that the Hizballah terrorists didn't murder the leader of the moderate forces it will be easier for the moderate forces to stay in a coalition government with them.

He added:

"Of course, the truth about the Hariri assassination should come out, but it should come out in a way that will not fracture the Lebanese society. Otherwise, in the name of finding the truth, we create a situation in Lebanon where people start killing each other off. And then what truth are you talking about?"

Right, so if the tribunal tells the truth about who murdered Hariri (and about a dozen other members of parliament, journalists, and others, all from the moderate side), the terrorist killers will then kill more people, and so what good will it be to know that they are terrorist killers?

Still, I believe in doing things constructively so I tried to figure out a way to have the truth come out "in a way that will not fracture the Lebanese society" (by making the killers angry).

I began with the vulgar,  Hizballah and Syria killed Harari, 

then went to the more subtle, Hizballah and Syria were happy when someone killed Harari. 

But finally I found the solution. Here's what the tribunal should say:

If Harari were driving down the street, and Hizballah and Syria knew there was a bomb that someone had planted in the roadway in order to assassinate him because he was being too pro-Western and actually standing up to the revolutionary Islamists, they would call Hariri up to warn him but wouldn't use their speed dial. Thus, tragically, the warning would be too late and Harari and two dozen bystanders would be killed.

How's that, Mr. Kalin?

Here's a good, brief, background piece on this issue and what might happen next by Professor Bill Harris, a real expert on Lebanon.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

Lebanon Headed for a Showdown?

The current state of things reminds makes me reminiscent of an old ELO song line: The weather is fine, but there may be a meteor shower...

All the factions, small and large, are positioning themselves for the final showdown. Currently its a conflict of words, taking a form of parliamentary negotiations. Hizballah is set to topple the Hariri government, over its decision to collaborate with the STL. Saudi-Arabia and Qatar, the external mediators have already packed their peckelach and took of. From Jocelyne Zablit:

The standoff pitting the Saudi- and Western-backed Hariri against the Iranian-and Syrian-backed Hezbollah is linked to a dispute over a UN tribunal probing the 2005 assassination of Hariri's father, former premier Rafiq Hariri.

Turkey and Qatar this week abandoned efforts to break the deadlock, after Saudi Arabia also threw in the towel, raising fears of an escalation.

Set to play kingmaker in the dispute was Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a former key ally of Hariri who was expected to announce his allegiance to Hezbollah later on Friday.

The Druze chieftain has 11 deputies in parliament, including five Christians and a Sunni. If he garners the backing of enough MPs, he would guarantee Hezbollah and its allies can impose their candidate for the premiership.

Hariri's coalition has 60 seats in the 128-seat parliament against 57 for Hezbollah's camp.

The militant party, blacklisted as a terrorist organisation by Washington, needs to secure the backing of eight deputies outside its alliance in order to come out the winner.

"It is clear that Jumblatt fears sectarian violence and has no other choice but to back Hezbollah," said one official close to his parliamentary bloc.

"We are hanging by a thread and maybe if Hezbollah has its way the situation won't escalate into violence," he added, requesting anonymity.

Acting Energy Minister Gebran Bassil, whose Christian Free Patriotic Movement is allied with Hezbollah, told AFP it was out of the question for Hariri to serve another term.

"I can't tell you who will be premier but I can tell you who it definitely will not be -- Hariri," Bassil said. "It is clear that we cannot go on with the same majority in the cabinet and the same premier."

He added that the Hezbollah-led alliance would nonetheless invite Hariri's coalition to join the new cabinet.

"We have no intention of sidelining anyone," Bassil said. "It is better, given the current situation, to form a unity government but with a different majority and a different premier."

But Ahmad Fatfat, an MP with Hariri's bloc, said his camp would not join a government led by the opposition.

"We are still confident we can garner the majority in parliament to nominate Hariri but in the event the other side manages to win, I don't believe we will take part in such a government," he said.

Hezbollah and its allies are widely expected to nominate veteran politician Omar Karameh, who has already served twice as premier, for the top government post.

According to Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.

Well, things in Lebanon are always confusing, but this situation is about to explode. A little later, Jumblatt did in fact declare his allegiance to the Hizballah lead opposition. 

More on that, when things start to unravel.

-QP

The Hariri Surprize!

Are you also anxiously and nervously awaiting the ruling of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)?

Boy, I sure am!

Rafic Hariri was a long time Lebanese politician and one of the dominant Prime Ministers of the country during the 90's and early 2000's. Of course he is a Sunni Muslim as the Lebanese constitution mandates (likewise the President is a Christian, Speaker of the House is Shi'a, I know, Lebanon is a mess). During his reign he was of course the darling of the West and many politicians in the west were in his pocket (apparently, Chirac was greatly indebted to Hariri).

In 2004 he was ousted from power by the pro-Syrian bloc. In early 2005 he was assassinated in quite an explosion, as many on the pro-Syria/pro-Iran side didn't like his activities behind the scenes. Of course Syria, Iran and Hizballah rushed to blame Israel. Everyone else in the world (who's brain didn't sip out of their ear) understood that the suspects are much more likely to be found along the ranks of Hizballah or the Syrian Mukhabarat than south of the border.

Meanwhile, the late Hariri's son is now the Prime Minister. Ironically, he has to form a coalition with his daddy's killers. All the while the world is anxiously awaiting to hear from the STL that Hizballah is behind the assassination. Nooooo! really?!

Since nothing in Lebanon can be complete without an awesome twist, we may very soon find out that Allah's own representative on earth gave the order.

In great anticipation to the coming revelation, Hizballah has resigned from their coalition of bastards and effectively toppled the administration of Hariri Jr.

I really doubt that Hizballah is interested in a renewed civil war. The Lebanese remember very well how Nasrallah's last little escapade in 2006 panned out and he is still trapped in a bunker. But seriously, Lebanon is a mess... sometimes it takes but a sneeze to ignite the whole situation.

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that when the shit hits the fan, the residents of northern Israel will be paying a hefty price.