Obama is AWOL

So now we know, Iranian warships are going to cross the Suez canal and unload munitions headed for Syria and Hizbullah.

Meanwhile, Sheikh Qardawi, has returned to Egypt and held a mass prayer that makes the demonstrations of the last couple of weeks look like a small campfire gathering of a few buddies.

Qardawi is perhaps the single most influencial radical islamist preacher in the world. This is Egypt's Khomeini, who has been in exile in Qatar. Incidentally, it's the same Qatar who has been promoting a false narrative of the events of Egypt in order to speed-up the collapse of the government there via their propaganda arm, Al-Jazeera.

In the last few days, we see all of America's strategical interests in the Middle East falling apaprt and the administration is AWOL.

-QP

Barry Rubin to Kerry - You are Playing with Fire!

The Obama administration and the entire strategical decision-making capacity in the US seems to be on an extended leave. It's a shame that such a weak administration is in charge at such tumulus times.

Recently, John Kerry came out in support of the demonstrators in Bahrain in a sign that could be interpreted by everyone as an American approval of a free-for-all against its allies. 

Rubin writes:

Senator John Kerry, who when I worked in the Senate was regarded as...let's just say as not a great genius, is now chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Kerry regards himself as something of a shadow secretary of state. If he ever actually gets that job we're all in trouble.
Kerry has been perhaps the most outspoken member of the Senate, now that Senator Arlen Spector is gone, in flattering the tyrannical government of Syria. Yet now Kerry is giving Bahrain the "Egypt treatment." He warned that government:
"Using tear gas, batons, and rubber bullets on peaceful protestors is the worst kind of response to a nonviolent demonstration. I urge the government of Bahrain to put an end to the violence and allow the Bahrainis to voice their call for greater political freedom. Historic protests are taking place across the Arab world and it is vital for every government to respond peacefully and listen to their own people.”
In principle,  these are fine sentiments, but in strategic terms they are foolish indeed. Bahrain is different from the Egyptian case in two important respects. First, the uprising in Bahrain is openly being led by islamists. Second, the problem of democracy in Bahrain is that the great majority of the population--about 85 percent--are Shia Muslims while the monarchy is Sunni.

If the majority were to rule, Bahrain would probably align itself with Iran. Following the fact that Iraq has a Shia-majority government, the transformation of a Gulf Cooperation Council state to Shia rule would freak out the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies as the beginning of the end for them.
So to play with backing an uprising in Bahrain is extremely dangeorus and no doubt Kerry, like the sorcerer's apprentice, has no idea what he might be unleashing there. If he wants to urge on an uprising he'd be better advised to stop coddling and start criticizing his friends in the Syrian regimet.

Video from Iran - Goons Beating Civilians

- QP

Bahrain Revolt Might be Iran - backed Shia Coup

Bahrain is a small island 'nation', sandwiched between Saudi Arabia. It is a small oil Sheikhdom ruled by the Sunni bedouin al-Khalifa tribe while most of the population is Shia. There are frequent complaints of discrimination.

Bahrain is one of the better places to live in in the Muslim world, with a GDP of about $20,000 per capita. This apparently, is insufficient to keep the population of just over 1 million docile and apathetic to the rampant corruption and authoritarian rule (unlike their southern neighbor, Qatar).

The makeup of Bahrain's population, as well as its historical links to the Persian empire means that often there is an Iranian connection. Ahmadinijad has declared only two years a go that Bahrain is rightfully owned Iranian sovereign territory that will be reclaimed.

Iran - Law Makers Call for the Execution of Moussavi, Karroubi

The Iranian parliament is a joke. The mob protesting for democracy is just that, a mob. Their anger is well understood, but they are still an unruly crowd.

It's quite telling when a nation's law makers seem to be worse than the mob outside. You can take a random sample of the angry youths and they will probably do a more responsible job running the state's affairs.

-QP

Revolution in Egypt and Iran - Dr. Bechor on the Contrasts

The success of the Egyptian popular ouster of their long serving autocrat, Mubarak, coupled with Obama's blessings has given hope to many Iranians that perhaps this is time to get rid of their autocratic regime.

Dr. Guy Bechor, of whom I am an avid reader, weighs in on the differences between the Iranian situation and the Egyptian situation, aside from the many superficial similarities.

Regime Survival

In Egypt, the current regime which is dominated by the defense establishment, has sacrificed  its figurehead Mubarak, in order to guarantee its own survival (at least until the next round). The Iranian equivalent will be the Revolutionary Guard attaining full control of the state, sacrificing Ahmadinijad in the process. However, in Iran, Ahmadinijad is viewed as a puppet of a hated regime, not as the root of it.

The People of Iran are Getting Ready to Reclaim the Revolution

Tomorrow morning Iran's 'Green Movement', the pro-democracy protest movement, is planning a day of action. Perhaps emboldened by the outcomes of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Iran's vast educated middle class is fed up with the dictatorship of Khaminai, Ahmadinijad and their Seppah gangs.

Unlike my worries about an Egyptian revolution, I am fully convinced that Iran is ready to establish a consensual democracy. Despite of years of mismanagement, sanctions and oppression, Iran has a relatively good economy and a strong, affluent and educated middle class. While, I do not expect Iran to immediately become close friends of Israel, simply cutting the genocidal rhetoric and letting Iranian athletes compete against their Israeli counterparts will be a good starting point.

I believe that Iranians and Israelis actually have much more in common than they expect.

New Zionist Conspiracy: Iran Accuses Mossad of Artificially Deflating Drug Prices

Asside from controlling world media, financial markets, the American congress, the president and a wide range of wild animals, apparently the Mossad is also working quite hard to ensure that Iranian drug addicts get their fix really really cheap.

Once again, I find myself extremely powerful of the Mossad! An organization that is estimated to have about 2,000 employees is able to control all the flow of contraband across the porous Iran-Afghanistan border. They are also able to keep every heroin pusher in the country on a short leash and bitchslap him if he may dare to sell at the reasonable, market price. If that's not an excellent use of the 'secret discretionary' budget of the Prime Minister's Office, I don't know what is.

Iranium: a Sneak Preview

A couple of weeks a go, I mentioned the little diplomatic incident between Canada and Iran over the upcoming documentary 'Iranium', which is highly critical of the Ayatollah's regime and alerts the viewers to their nuclear ambitions. The Iranian government threatened the Canadian government and demanded the movie will not be showcased at the Library and Archives Canada, which is a government institution, in Ottawa. The Harper government, which has been very consistent with regards to a firm stance on foreign policy, has refused to cave in.

In the Canadian media this was a debate over free speech. The boorish demands of a regressive dictatorship to suppress criticism and freedom of speech in a western democracy has certainly been an effective PR tool for the producers. By this I am not trying to say that the entire heated exchange of words was a publicity stunt, but it certainly brought my attention to the film.

I ended signing up for the film's public premiere. For the next 12 hours or so, you can watch the entire movie for free (by clicking on the widget below). I already watched it and recommend you do the same while it is possible. If public access is no longer available, or you want to find out more about it before committing an hour, here's my impression:

Iran: a Panicked Regime

Ever since the election protests of the summer of '09, the Iranian regime is in a state of panic. Although still running strong, the displays of anger on the streets of Tehran and other cities had made the regime less conciliatory and more brutal than ever. 30 years after toppling an unpopular regime and promising to usher an era of freedom seems to have run its course. Coupled with the recent events in Tunisia, the economic sanctions and the end of subsidies to many daily staples of existence had made the regime very weary of any expression of discontent.

The JPost reports Iran is going through what can only be described as an 'execution binge', this time targeting the country's Kurdish minority in particular:  

In the early morning hours of Saturday, January 15 in the isolated and overcrowded Urumiya prison in western Iran, the authorities hanged one of their opponents.

Hossein Khazri, an alleged activist with the Party for Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), was 29. He had been in custody since early 2009. His crime, of which he was convicted on July 11, 2009, was that of being an “enemy of God” in the eyes of the Islamic Republic.

Khazri’s specific activities against the deity worshiped by the rulers of Iran appear to have consisted of political agitation for democracy and federalism in the country of his birth.

In the course of his incarceration, in prisons administered by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Intelligence Ministry, Khazri had been severely tortured, according to human rights organizations. His hanging was the latest in a wave of executions of Kurdish activists and other opponents of the regime carried out in recent weeks. Fourteen other Kurdish activists are currently on death row, condemned for their political activities.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran this week described the authorities as on an “execution binge,” orchestrated by the intelligence and security agencies.

Of course the Kurdish minority are not the only people in Iran which are currently being brutally handled, but it brings up the very interesting issue of treatment of minorities, as well as of dissidents. The Kurds in particular are routinely mistreated in whichever state a particular province of their homeland falls. In Iran:

THE IRANIAN system is dominated by ethnic Persians, but the Islamic Republic does not define itself officially according to ethnic identity. Rather, it rules in the name of religion. As such, the regime constitutionally recognizes the Kurdish language. In practice, however, discrimination against Kurds and other minority ethnic and religious communities is widespread and of long standing.

Around 5 million Kurds live in Iran, concentrated in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Ilam and Kurdistan. Separatist sentiment is particularly strong among Sunni Muslim Kurds, who constitute just over half the total. In the earliest days of the regime, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared a jihad against Kurdish separatism, and 10,000 Kurds were killed as the Revolutionary Guards fought to establish regime control in these areas. 

 In Turkey their situation is pretty grim as well. The only place where the Kurds are able to lead lives that reflect their unique heritage in in the State of Kurdistan, part of federal Iraq. Of course they were able to do that only after the US lead toppling of Saddam's regime.

I know that Israel has been having intelligence connections with the Kurds in Iraq for quite some time. I wouldn't be surprised if those connections extend beyond the border to Iran. It's my opinion that Israel should actively assist the Kurds in securing, if not outright independence of Kurdistan, at least a more equitable federative arrangement from their home states.

Needless to say, I think the Human Rights folks, as well as the UN need to start looking at the situations of other middle eastern minorities besides the Palestinians. I think the Kurds, Lebanese Christians and Egyptian Copts need quite a lot more protection from the international community.

-QP

Canada Standing Firm to Criminal Threats from Iran

I previously discussed the possibility that Iran will manage to shut down free speech in Canada using threats. It appears as though the Conservative government stands for free speech in Canada after all!

The Harper government has ordered Library and Archives Canada to screen the new documentary Iranium. The post writes:

The Harper government sent a diplomatic note to Iran Wednesday, as Heritage Minister James Moore lashed out at Tehran for its part in a campaign that cancelled the screening of a movie critical of the Iranian regime at Library and Archives Canada.

On Wednesday morning, the Minister instructed Library and Archives Canada to show Iranium, a documentary critiquing Iran’s nuclear program, after it cowed to numerous threats of protest and an official request from the Iranian embassy in Canada to not present the film Tuesday night, as scheduled.

In its diplomatic note to Tehran, the government said Canada is a free country and that freedom of expression is a core value that won’t be compromised.

That's a breath of fresh air. I cannot say that I am an equivocal fan of everything the Harper government does, but thus far they have been consistently good in the international, especially vis-a-vis Iran and vis-a-vis Israel.

-QP

Barry Rubin: Does Iran Now Decide The Limits of Free Speech in the West?

Another great article by one of my favourite analysts. Check out his blog



By Barry Rubin

Something happened in Canada that's truly terrible, far more terrible than even the people who think it is terrible realize.

Here's the story from Canada's National Post, January 18:

"After receiving threats and two suspicious letters Tuesday, the National Archives of Canada cancelled the screening of a controversial documentary that critiques Iran's nuclear weapons program.... 

"Once we started to receive threats from the public and threats of public protest, we deemed the risk associated with the event was a little too high," she said...."

Can you tell me what is unique about this situation? No one has pointed it out yet. Yes, there has been frequent intimidation regarding materials about Islam when Muslims have complained and violence has been threatened. This in itself is an important issue involving free speech.

But that is not what's happening here. A film about a nuclear weapons program isn't a discussion of Muhammad, the founder of Islam. It's about a country.

So for the first time I'm aware of a state--a radical, aggressive, terrorist-promoting, genocidal regime at that--has blocked a public event including criticism of its policies in a Western democracy. This is a big extension of the existing problem. What's next, people scrambling to avoid being accused of Iranophobia?

Parallel things have happened before. For example, Saudi Arabia managed to block the showing of a film on British television about the execution of a princess and a British investigation into corruption in arms sales to Saudi Arabia. But that kind of thing, also increasing, was on a state-to-state level.

By the way, of course, in the Middle East the most extreme anti-Jewish, anti-American, and anti-Western material (it would be called hate crimes in the West) is churned out at high volume every day without Western complaint, much less threats.

This is part of the taming of Western democracy and the closing down of freedom of speech so prevalent today. Voltaire spoke of the torturable and untorturable classes in the eighteenth century. Now we have the criticizable and uncriticizable countries. 

Here's the truth: A huge amount of what masquerades as public discourse today is the result of propaganda campaigns. The Palestinian Authority, Hamas, and their allies run a huge anti-Israel slander machine that masquerades as human rights, news, non-governmental organizations, and so on. Professors and teachers conduct indoctrination brainwashing in the guise of education.

If you don't know this is going on then we are all in serious trouble. And we are aware of only a small portion of what is happening.

Here's an example. By accident, I run into a family that lives in a small town in Maryland. The daughter who is in high school mentions to me that two Palestinian girls came into the classrooms and gave a presentation on how horrible and evil Israel is. You can imagine. I ask, "Was this part of some series or program with people coming from various countries?" 

"No," she replies. It just happened. It is the only such session they've had this year. 

So on the one hand there is a relentless onslaught of misinformation on behalf of anti-democratic movements and regimes; on the other hand a relentless onslaught of anti-democratic manipulation and intimidation to block the other side. 

By the way, the group sponsoring the film showing in Canada is called the Free Thinking Society. Apparently, that is out of fashion.